Win Rate Calculator
Put in your wins and losses. You get your win rate, the rate your average win and loss actually require, and what one more trade of the same type is worth.
How the numbers are worked out
Four lines of arithmetic, and nothing hidden behind the result.
The formulas
- Win rate
- Wins ÷ (Wins + Losses)
- Loss rate
- Losses ÷ (Wins + Losses)
- Realised reward : risk
- Average win ÷ Average loss
- Expectancy
- (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
- Expectancy in R
- (Win rate × Reward-to-risk) − Loss rate
- Break-even win rate
- 1 ÷ (1 + Reward-to-risk)
- Reward : risk you need
- Loss rate ÷ Win rate
R is simply your average loss. Quoting expectancy in R makes two strategies comparable even when they are traded at different sizes.
The example above, step by step
- 140 winners against 60 losers is 100 decided trades, so the win rate is 40.0%.
- 2Winners averaged ₹300.00 and losers ₹100.00, which is a realised reward-to-risk of 1 : 3.00.
- 3At 1 : 3.00 the sample only needs 25.0% of trades to win to stay flat — 40.0% clears that line.
- 4Expectancy is 40.0% of ₹300.00 minus 60.0% of ₹100.00, or +₹60.00 a trade (+0.60R). Across 100 trades that is +₹6,000.00.
Why the win rate on its own proves nothing
A rate is half a sentence. The other half is what a winner is worth next to a loser.
Two traders can post the same 40 per cent win rate and end the year in opposite places. The one whose winners are three times the size of the losers is comfortably ahead; the one whose winners are half the size of the losers has spent the year giving money away. The rate is identical, and it tells you nothing until you attach the two averages.
That is why this page leads with the gap between two percentages rather than with the win rate itself. The break-even win rate is the line your reward-to-risk draws, and the only question that matters is which side of it you are on. When the gap is negative there are three ways to close it — win more often, make more on the winners, or lose less on the losers — and the last two are usually the ones you can actually control.
Sample size decides how much of this to believe. A few dozen trades give you a rough sense; a hundred or more before you act on the figure. The first ten trades of a losing strategy look very much like the first ten of a winning one.
Reading the result
- Win rate
- The share of decided trades that closed in profit. Break-even trades are counted in the total but kept out of this figure.
- Break-even win rate
- The win rate your realised reward-to-risk demands. Above the line the strategy makes money; below it, it does not.
- Expectancy
- What one more trade of this type is worth on average, in money and in R. It is the only figure here that settles whether to keep trading the setup.
- Reward : risk you need
- The other way out. If the win rate cannot be raised, this is the ratio that would make the same win rate profitable.
The win rate each ratio needs
Every reward-to-risk sets its own pass mark. This is the table, row by row.
| Risk : reward | Break-even win rate | In practice |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.50 | 66.7% | Two wins in three, just to stay flat. |
| 1 : 1.00 | 50.0% | Better than a coin flip, consistently. |
| 1 : 1.50 | 40.0% | Two wins in five keeps you level. |
| 1 : 2.00 | 33.3% | One win in three keeps you level. |
| 1 : 2.50 | 28.6% | Two wins in seven keeps you level. |
| 1 : 3.00 | 25.0% | One win in four keeps you level. |
| 1 : 4.00 | 20.0% | One win in five keeps you level. |
| 1 : 5.00 | 16.7% | One win in six keeps you level. |
These are gross figures. Brokerage and taxes push every row a little higher, which is what the net break-even win rate in the calculator shows.
Read this table in the direction that suits the problem. If your win rate is fixed by the kind of setup you trade, it tells you the ratio you have to hold out for. If the ratio is fixed by where your stop and target have to sit, it tells you the win rate you need to record before the approach is worth repeating.
Both figures are gross. Brokerage and taxes push every row a little higher, which is why a strategy that looks like it clears break-even by a point or two often does not. The risk to reward calculator prices those charges into the same break-even figure.
Other calculators
Same approach, different question.
Frequently Asked Questions
How to calculate win rate?
Win rate is calculated by dividing your number of winning trades by total closed trades and multiplying by 100. Formula: Win Rate (%) = (Winning Trades ÷ Total Closed Trades) × 100. For example, 45 wins out of 60 total decided trades is a 75% win rate. Break-even trades are typically excluded from the calculation.
What is a good win rate in trading?
A good win rate in trading typically falls between 40% and 60% for most successful trading systems. A 40% win rate can be highly profitable if your risk to reward ratio is 1 : 2 or higher. Conversely, even an 80% win rate can lose money if average losses far exceed average gains.
How to achieve 90% win rate in trading?
To achieve a 90% win rate in trading, traders focus on strong trend alignment, high-confluence support/resistance setups, tight profit targets (scalping), and strict exit discipline. However, 90% win rate strategies often risk larger stop losses relative to targets. High win rates must be balanced with strict risk management to prevent a single large loss from wiping out cumulative gains.
How do I improve my win rate in day trading?
To improve your win rate in day trading, trade only in the direction of the dominant higher time frame trend, wait for key level confirmations, avoid over-trading during low volatility market sessions, use fixed risk management per trade (1-2% of account capital), and keep a detailed trade log to identify and refine your highest-probability setups.
What is expectancy in trading?
Expectancy is the average result of one trade over a long run: (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss). A positive expectancy proves your trading strategy has a statistical edge and generates profit over time.
How many trades before my win rate means anything?
A sample size of at least 50 to 100 trades is needed to calculate a statistically meaningful win rate. Small samples dominated by 10-20 trades are heavily influenced by market luck and noise.